Trump’s “Big Beautiful Bill,” Tariffs & AI: This Week’s Logistics & E-Commerce News

According to my friend Juozas Kaziukėnas, Temu and Shein are back in full force in the US. After a three months-long pause the Chinese retail apps are back to topping the most-downloaded apps chart.

In April, de minimis exemption (not paying tariffs) went away and tariffs on Chinese goods skyrocketed. So Temu and Shein switched off ads and thus disappeared from the app store rankings. No point in acquiring customers when you had lost your value proposition - Temu removed most of the catalog and both apps doubled or tripled prices to account for tariffs. They were in limbo - still active in other parts of the world but had effectively given up in the US.

Well, de minimis exception is not coming back but tariffs have come down. And Temu and Shein has a long list of diversification plays that were started years ago and have obviously only accelerated. So they are back. They've been increasing ad buying for the past week weeks and this weekend got back to being the two most-downloaded apps. So de minimis is dead but Temu and Shein aren't. They are back weaker, but still back.

Important insights on tariffs from Alex Yancher, CEO of Passport

The TLDR: Tariffs are 5x higher than 2024 levels, and it’s likely they are here to stay for many years. There is a lot of attention on the U.S. deficit today and the U.S. even hit a budget surplus thanks to tariffs in June. Customs duties, primarily from tariffs, contributed significantly to this surplus, reaching a record $27 billion for the month.

For what it’s worth, Trump’s “big beautiful” spending bill that made its way through Congress earlier this month is expected to add about $3.4 trillion to the national debt over the next decade, but hey, those are future generations’ problems, right?!

Europe Prepares for a U.S. Trade Fight

The EU’s member states are preparing for new countermeasures against the U.S. after being told Trump wants more concessions for a trade agreement.

Trump’s administration is pushing for a baseline tariff on most European goods of 15% or higher; officials had earlier discussed a 10% levy. The shift prompted Germany, Europe’s biggest economy and its largest exporter, which had previously been more dovish on U.S. retaliation, to swing closer to France’s more confrontational position.

European officials and member states still hope a deal is possible. The bloc doesn’t plan to launch any retaliation before Trump’s Aug. 1 deadline, and the preparation of measures that could be introduced using the anti-coercion instrument doesn’t necessarily mean the tool will be deployed

AI in E-commerce & Logistics

According to The Information, ChatGPT is reportedly prepping to add an e-commerce checkout feature and take a cut of sales made through the chatbot (link). OpenAI and partners including Shopify have been presenting early versions of the feature to brands, the FT reported. Interesting move for OpenAI to monetize ChatGPT beyond subscriptions, and smart move for Shopify to protect their payments business and make sure they still control transactions by their merchants.

In April, OpenAI said it was exploring ways for merchants to share product information directly with ChatGPT to help improve the accuracy of search results.

I read of two supply chain AI companies raising capital: Magnetic with a $5.5M Seed and Octup with a $12M Seed. AI in logistics management is hot.

Return Fraud Is Running Rampant 

Return fraud has exploded into a massive issue, with Americans fraudulently returning $103 billion worth of merchandise in 2024—15% of all returns. Surprisingly, it's not just organized criminals: surveys show more than half of everyday consumers admit to engaging in fraudulent returns at least once. This represents a fundamental shift in consumer behavior, with people treating return policies as "free rental" services.

The behavior ranges from "wardrobing" (buying items for special occasions, then returning them) to sophisticated schemes like returning empty boxes weighted to match the original product or swapping damaged items for new ones. Social media platforms have become training grounds, with TikTok videos teaching users how to exploit Amazon's policies and Reddit forums comparing notes on which retailers are easiest to game. E-commerce has made this easier since warehouse workers can't scrutinize returns like store employees can.

Many consumers rationalize this as victimless crimes against faceless corporations, driven by a "stick it to the man" mentality amid rising prices and corporate profits. But the costs ultimately get passed to honest customers through higher prices, and small businesses bear disproportionate harm—one toy store owner lost $55 when a customer returned a half-assembled model kit, money he can't afford to lose, unlike major retailers.

The bottom line: Retailers are responding with tighter policies, customer bans, and AI-powered tracking that can flag bad actors across multiple stores. Expect fewer free returns, shorter return windows, and more scrutiny of your purchase history. The era of consequence-free returns is ending as businesses fight back against what's become normalized fraud behavior.

Trump’s Commerce Secretary Loves Tariffs. His Former Investment Bank Is Taking Bets Against Them

Cantor Fitzgerald has been purchasing tariff refund claims from companies at discounted rates, essentially betting that the Trump administration will provide relief from tariffs imposed during his first term. Cantor Fitzgerald is offering 20%-30% for Trump Tariff Refund Rights. This business model involves buying these claims for pennies on the dollar and potentially collecting the full refund amount if tariff relief policies are enacted.

The ethical concerns center on the fact that Lutnick, as Commerce Secretary, would have significant influence over trade policy and tariff decisions that could directly benefit his company's investments. Critics argue this represents a clear conflict of interest where Lutnick could potentially profit from policy decisions he helps make Cantor Fitzgerald offers to buy the rights in potential refunds from companies that have paid Trump’s tariffs.

Companies that paid substantial tariffs during Trump's previous presidency are looking for ways to recoup some of those costs, and firms like Cantor Fitzgerald are positioning themselves to profit from any potential refund mechanisms. Companies that paid significant tariffs during Trump's first term are essentially sitting on substantial amounts of tied-up capital. These tariff payments represented major unplanned expenses that disrupted procurement budgets and working capital cycles.

The existence of this market likely influences current sourcing decisions. We now have to factor in not just current tariff costs, but also the potential value of future refund claims when evaluating supplier locations and trade routes. This adds another layer of complexity to total cost of ownership calculations in global sourcing strategies.