SCOTUS & Tariffs, Shopify’s Soaring Numbers, UPS & Gig Workers, and Tech Predictions for 2026: This Week’s Logistics & E-commerce News

Among the biggest headlines this week is how the Supreme Court will rule on Trump’s tariffs. Justices began hearing arguments yesterday (WSJ) and appear skeptical of Trump’s authority to impose these tariff measures. The Supreme Court is weighing whether the president lawfully invoked his authority under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act to levy the global tariffs without Congress's approval, as well as a set of tariffs on Canada, China and Mexico related to fentanyl.

While a decision isn't expected immediately, questioning during the argument suggested that the tariffs may not survive the challenge, which would force the Trump administration to rely on other authorities to deploy levies on a similar scale.

Here’s what the prediction markets think will happen: 75% chance that the Supreme Court will rule against Trump’s tariffs.

UPS earnings show strategic shift paying off (CNBC). CEO Carol Tomé said, "We are executing the most significant strategic shift in our company's history, and the changes we are implementing are designed to deliver long-term value for all stakeholders." They also announced they have successfully eliminated 48,000 jobs YTD. Amazon's total volume with UPS fell 21.2% in Q3 compared with a 13% decline for the first half of the year, as the company continues its planned volume reduction.

UPS also announced that they have reached a preliminary understanding with USPS on revenue and rates to resume last-mile delivery for Ground Saver service. The relationship between the two carriers had deteriorated early this year when UPS moved Ground Saver (previously SurePost) volume in-house after contract negotiations broke down.

UPS stock was up 8% on the news, its best single-day performance since reporting COVID-era results on Feb 1, 2022; however, the stock is still down 25% YTD.

Devastating UPS cargo plane crash in Louisville kills at least 12 (WSJ). A UPS MD-11 cargo plane crashed shortly after takeoff from Louisville Muhammad Ali International Airport on Tuesday evening, killing at least 12 people, including the three crew members and a young child. The left engine separated from the plane during takeoff, causing a fire that led to a crash in a ball of flames. The plane was carrying approximately 38,000 gallons of fuel and up to 20,000 packages when it crashed into an industrial area, creating a half-mile debris field. This is heartbreaking news for the Louisville community and everyone connected to UPS. Louisville is home to UPS Worldport and more than 25,000 UPS employees. My thoughts are with all the families affected by this tragedy.

Shopify crushes Q3 expectations with 32% growth across the board (Shopify). Shopify reported 32% revenue growth and 18% free cash flow margin in Q3, marking nine consecutive quarters of double-digit free cash flow margins. GMV surged 32% to $92 billion, with international GMV growing 41% and B2B GMV exploding 98% year-over-year. Shopify Payments reached 65% penetration of GMV in Q3, while Shop Pay processed $29 billion in GMV, up 67% year-over-year. The numbers are staggering when you consider the scale Shopify is operating at - few businesses can maintain this kind of growth rate while simultaneously expanding margins. As I noted on LinkedIn, this is exactly the kind of execution that separates platform companies that simply grow from those that compound growth while improving unit economics.

Holiday shipping deadlines are here (DCL Corp). With peak season upon us, carriers have released their 2025 holiday shipping deadlines. For Christmas delivery, UPS cutoffs are December 19 for 3 Day Select, December 22 for 2nd Day Air, and December 23 for Next Day Air. USPS deadlines are December 17 for Ground Advantage and First-Class Mail, December 18 for Priority Mail, and December 20 for Priority Mail Express. As always, DCL has one of the best carrier peak season resources out there.

UPS is increasingly turning to gig drivers for deliveries (WSJ). UPS is increasing its use of gig delivery drivers as e-commerce volumes grow, with these drivers using their own vehicles to deliver smaller, low-volume parcels. While the company has long used gig drivers during the busy holiday season, the modern eCommerce landscape with more common volume surges—whether planned events like Prime Day or unplanned upticks from products going viral—has left UPS facing a mismatch between orders and drivers.

Scott Galloway picks Amazon as his Big Tech stock for 2026 (Prof G Blog). NYU Professor Scott Galloway (and one of my favorite pundits) has named Amazon his Big Tech stock pick for 2026, noting that investors are "pricing in AWS's dominance, but missing the retail margin story," making Amazon one of the most under-appreciated members of the Mag 7. Based on last year's financials, $10 billion in cost savings translates to an additional $170 billion in enterprise value, while Amazon's shares are trading at 34x earnings, well below the company's five-year average of 60x.

—Matt Hertz, Founder & CEO of Third Person