U.S. E-commerce Growth Shows No Signs of Slowing Down Despite De Minimis, Tariff Concerns

According to Adobe, U.S. e-commerce growth in October 2025 was an 8.2% year-over-year increase, reaching $88.7 billion in sales. Mobile spending surged 11.6%, social media-driven sales jumped 28%, and influencer/affiliate purchases climbed 15%.

Despite all the noise about de minimis rules, tariff concerns, and economic uncertainty, U.S. e-commerce spending hasn't flinched. The market is growing consistently and predictably. 

At Third Person, we've had a front-row seat to this growth. Over the last year, we've connected over 1,000 e-commerce brands with 300+ vetted 3PL partners, facilitating more than $25M in new business.

The Adobe data tells part of the story. Social commerce up 28% means more DTC brands finding customers where they live online. The 15% growth in influencer and affiliate channels means the barriers to launching a brand continue to fall. These aren't mega-retailers. These are the companies we work with: the founder who bootstrapped a beauty brand to $2M in revenue, the team whose pet product is suddenly doing $50K/month, and the apparel startup that just landed a retail partnership and needs to scale fulfillment.

Consistent 8-10% year-over-year e-commerce growth means more brands crossing the inflection point where their garage stops being a viable warehouse. More companies are hitting the moment where they realize they need professional fulfillment, but have no idea how to evaluate 3PL providers.

The macro trends suggest this isn't slowing down. Prime Day events are now predictable revenue spikes. Social commerce infrastructure is maturing: TikTok Shop, Instagram Shopping, WhatNot, and newer platforms are converting scrollers into buyers. The de minimis concerns that dominated headlines? They haven't dampened consumer appetite.

For Third Person, these tailwinds translate directly into demand. Every percentage point of e-commerce growth creates brands that will eventually need fulfillment partners. Every new social commerce channel creates more brands launching lean who need to outsource logistics from day one.

E-commerce is roughly 16-17% of total U.S. retail sales. That means 83% is still happening in physical stores. As that ratio continues shifting, the number of brands needing sophisticated fulfillment solutions will only increase.

It's fun building a business in a market growing at consistently high rates. But it's more satisfying watching the brands we work with scale and succeed because they found the right fulfillment partner at the right time. That's the real story behind Adobe's numbers.

Source: https://business.adobe.com/blog/adi-october-2025-holiday-shopping-actuals